Latest Headlines from the Belpark Team

An Active Upcoming Week

Sunday 12/5 and Monday 12/6

Welcome back to another behind the scenes look at the upcoming week. It still looks like we have an active week ahead with multiple systems set to impact the area.

Our Journey starts with Sunday and Monday of this week. A system is expected to move through Sunday evening and overnight.

NAM3k Simulated Reflectivity for 12am 12/6
HRRR Simulated Reflectivity for 7am 12/6

Rain moves in Sunday evening and overnight and looks to pick up towards Monday morning for a portion of the region. This looks to remain a strictly rain even, which most of the region picking .5 to 1″ worth of rain. This however is not the big story with this system. As the storm moves through the area, cold air is going to be rushing in behind, bringing with it some pretty significant winds.

NAM3k Simulated Wind Gusts for 11pm 12/5

We could see wind gusts to 40mph or higher at times during the overnight, with higher gusts along the shores of Lake Erie. A Gale Watch is in effect for Lake Erie with gusts up to 50 knots and waves of 8 to 13 feet possible during the day on Monday. It will continue to be breezy during the day Monday with wind gusts 30 to 40 mph possible.

Tuesday 12/7 and Wednesday 12/8

Our attention turns to the next system moving in Tuesday 12/7 and Wednesday 12/8. We mentioned a few days ago that this system looks like it could bring our first considerable amount of snow for some of us. At this point this does not seem likely outside of potentially portions of SE Ohio and West Virginia.

GFS Simulated Reflectivity for 4am Wednesday 12/8
ECMWF (Euro) Model Simulated Reflectivity for 7am 12/8

If you couldn’t tell, the Euro Model and GFS model don’t exactly agree with the amount of precipitation that will be falling early in the day of Wednesday. This is likely because this system overall appears to be coming in weaker than it appeared even just a few days ago. While snow will likely fall, most will see less than 1″ and some none at all. At the moment this second system does not seem too much to be concerned with.

Friday 12/10 and Beyond

We are also keeping an eye on yet another system poised to move in for the weekend. It should be noted right now there are considerable differences between models so this is NOT a forecast, just something we are watching.

GFS Simulated Radar 1am 12/12
Euro Simulated Radar 1am 12/12

It’s pretty clear that there are significant differences in the models at this time. The GFS model is showing both rain and snow almost split evenly down the center of the state. The Euro on the other hand at this point shows some potentially heavy rain over a portion of the state, with the overall system further West than the GFS. It is likely that some rain will precede all of this during the day on Friday, but anything more than that is pure speculation at this point. We are keeping our eye on things so stay tuned!

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.