Written: 11:35 PM 3/8/2021
Written by: Nick Dunn
Hello, everyone! I hope you enjoyed the milder start to the work week! It certainly was difficult to not get outdoors today with temperatures getting into the 60’s in most areas! Aside from the breeze, it was pretty much a perfect day!
We will continue a nice period of mild, dry weather through mid-week. However, that comes with the price of more windy conditions, particularly on Wednesday. In fact, I would not be too surprised to see some localized elevated fire danger once again for your Tuesday. We should see a bit more moisture stream in aloft Wednesday to help keep that concern at bay. Fire Danger was a bit elevated in southeast and parts of Central Ohio on Monday due to the winds and humidity values below 30% at times. Models depict a similar scenario today, so let’s see how that unfolds.
The HRRR shows humidity values dropping into the mid and upper 20% ranges across most of the area. Again, we will watch this closely. Winds won’t be as strong Tuesday.
Windy conditions look increasingly likely for your Wednesday and Thursday. In fact, some of you are likely to wake up to windy conditions first thing Wednesday morning ahead of our next system. We will stay warm, but the winds could get gusty enough to blow your trash can down the block, blow around unsecured outdoor furniture, or snap a few tiny twigs.
The NAM (likely a bit high) at 9AM already shows some pretty decent wind gusts for most of the region. In fact, some gusts could briefly approach advisory criteria at times Wednesday afternoon. Overall, gusts of 25-45 MPH are possible during the day Wednesday.
In general, based on the latest data, here is our wind gust forecast for the daytime hours on Wednesday. Sometimes, models are a bit off on handling peak gusts due to “mixing” of the winds as we get to the surface. The point here is to be ready for a windy Wednesday and potentially Thursday.
In terms of rainfall, off and on rain showers are expected to move in Thursday. A few embedded thunderstorms are certainly possible, but no severe weather is expected.
Rain will continue into Friday. There is uncertainty with how much (and where) rain lingers into this weekend. However, general consensus is that most of the area will see at least 0.50″ of rain between Thursday and Friday. Some pockets could see up to 1″ of rain where heavier rains or thunderstorms occur. Excessive rainfall is not looking as likely due to the slower expected movement of this system.
Stay tuned for further updates on the weather this week! Be sure to tune in for our announcement of the NOAA Weather Radio Giveaway Tuesday evening!