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1/22/2021 — Wintry System Looking Likely Sunday-Tuesday

Written: 12:45 AM 1/22/2021
Written by: Nick Dunn, ONW Lead Forecaster

We are getting closer to having a better idea of what kind of storm system we will face from Sunday Night through Tuesday across the region. Sometimes, we have to exercise caution and patience with systems! Often times, people post about the “Doomsday” (Worst-case) Scenario, which is usually never the final outcome. We still have 72+ Hours to go, so let’s look at what we can share with you now!

What Do We Know?

Honestly, there are still several variables we have to watch. But, the below graphic will easily explain what we know and what we do not know, and it will be beneficial for you! This is as simple as it gets:

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We oftentimes share this graphic with details you can understand and what is not worth buying much “stock” into just yet! We never hype any storm system up, but we do like to share with you what we see to help teach you. To sum it up, a storm system will track trough the Ohio valley/Great Lakes and bring some form of precipitation, some of which could be heavy, and it needs to be something you check back with us for updates on. Easy enough? 😀

What Are The Possible Outcomes?

Scenario #1 – Northern Track

This scenario is more of the classic “I-70 Divider” scenario, something many of us are accustomed to occurring during winter months! This would keep snow across the far north, a mix or ice north of I-70, and rain south in general. There would be potential for Flooding to the south of US-50 *IF* this track were true. Warmer air gets pulled further north, keeping the rain/snow line north.

Scenario #2 – Southern Track

This scenario is more of a “suppression” type of scenario where colder air wins and more of our region sees accumulating snow. There would be a mix or ice zone south of I-70, and rain to the far south. This outcome is not uncommon, but does not happen too often usually.

We tend to feel right now that scenario #2 is the least likely to occur, but we feel a track somewhere between the two scenarios is most likely. However, this is just a preliminary guess and basing that off of what climatology says for our region. The system has yet to fully come into the United States, so models will continue to wobble on the track, timing, and temperatures until we get more data from weather balloons. Either way, it is nice to have something to talk about!

Stay tuned for more updates over the coming days! We will not share too many specifics until we feel it is worth sharing with you to prevent confusion. However, if we look at potential centers of where the storm could end up, there remains much variability!

There remains a cluster of ensemble members showing a center in the Ohio valley, so there is some agreement based on the European Model, but time will tell!

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