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1/21/2021 — What We Are Watching: Active Pattern Next Week?

Written: 3:00 AM 1/21/2021
Written by: Nick Dunn

Good morning, everyone! We hope you all are having a great week so far. We are closely monitoring a series of systems over the next 7 days that will give us something to watch! It remains early for exact details for next week, but let’s take a quick look at each system we are watching!

SYSTEM #1 – Late Thursday/Friday

A clipper system will pass through Canada, which will drag some colder air into the region and trigger some light snow for our northern counties. In terms of accumulations, we feel right now the only areas that could see anything accumulate would really be in the Snowbelt, where a few spots could see around 1″ of snowfall.

This model seems to show a good handle on where I think snow is possible, which is near and north of US-30 at this time. Snow would gradually taper off later Friday and this should not be any real cause for concern.

Accumulations appear most likely in the Snowbelt as mentioned. I feel around 1″ is a good bet there, perhaps a few spots closer o 2″ in heavier bands that could materialize. Due to the fast-moving system we will not see an extended period of snow, meaning lower accumulations.

SYSTEM #2 – Late Sunday

The GFS model is consistent (along with the Euro) at bringing at least a chance of some light rain/snow mix to the region late Sunday afternoon into the evening before possibly changing to snow. There could also potentially be a period of icy precipitation, but that remains too early to be seen at this time. This system again is not looking too impressive, but nevertheless it will keep things active in the weather department.

SYSTEM #3 – Monday Night through Wednesday

We lack higher confidence talking this far out, but another low-pressure system (likely stronger than the other systems) looks to travel somewhere across the Ohio valley during this timeframe. Where exactly this system ultimately tracks and how much moisture is in place will determine precipitation type and amount. We will not share any model projections on precipitation type. However, to show some of the uncertainty, here is a look at where the GFS Ensemble members have potential low-pressure locations for overnight Monday (early Tuesday AM):

This image shows the low=pressure could be closer to the Ohio River, or it could be somewhere between Missouri and the Atlantic Ocean. Why do we share this? Typically most people that have access to model data like to look at one run and feel that is what will happen. Now for contrast, here is the Euro Model and where that model thinks the low-pressure centers could be at the same time frame:

See the differences? It remains too early to share exact details like final timing, precipitation type, and amount. However, it certainly looks like a more sizeable system moves through the Ohio Valley early next week with the potential to bring all precipitation types (rain, ice, and/or snow) to someone in our area! As this system gets sampled better and we get closer, we can give you a better idea of what to expect. Right now, it is about trying to find similarities between models, which we do see that they are consistently bringing precipitation of varying types and amounts to the region, but placement is nowhere close to agreeing. Be sure to stay tuned for updates!

COLD WEEKEND START

Lastly, here is a look at projected high temperatures for Saturday afternoon! Expect colder temperatures in the region and you will want that winter coat to stay warm! Sunday’s highs look milder as that rain/snow mix moves into the region by later in the day and evening.

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